Casting failure probabilities

To the best of my knowledge, the probabilities of successful enchant casts at 189 SDM are {0.91,0.91,0.81,0.51,0.21} for the first five enchants. However, not all failures are created equal. Some are weak glow and some are kaboom. Are the probabilities of each of those two outcomes known for the first five enchants?

I figure if I know all the details, I can set up a transition matrix for the Markov process, and get the ultimate probabilities of a 1x, 2x, …, 5x success.

Man I blow stuff up fairly regularly on attempt # 1 with 189 wiz :(

i find with my wizzies that if I wear 2-RI and an AoI the casting goes much better and I dont blow up items also if my wizzies eat before casting it helps alot. After 4 casts ( ie: perm FB, perm venom) I eat and then continue to cast. the less i eat the greater chances my casts with blow something or change it to tears of sweat.